Tag: Stock Market

Investor reviewing July market recap with stock indices inflation data and Fed policy outlook

August Market Recap 2026: A Two-Tier Economy

Written by Alexis Duffy on September 9, 2026. Posted in Monthly Newsletter, Newsroom.

Presented by The PensionmarkMeridien Team, September 2026

August saw inflation hold above the Federal Reserve’s target, bond yields stay elevated, and oil swing sharply on geopolitical tensions. Retail and housing trends, meanwhile, pointed to a slowing economy and a wary consumer.

The economy wasn’t faltering, just running at two speeds, as demonstrated by strong performance from the services sector, which was offset by a marked pullback in the manufacturing sector. That divide, layered on top of a low-hire, low-fire labor environment and persistent inflation, complicates the outlook for both growth and Fed policy.

Against that backdrop, here’s where the benchmarks landed:

MAJOR U.S. STOCK INDICES

U.S. stocks hovered near record highs in August, led by technology and AI-related names even as underlying economic data painted a conflicting picture. Nvidia’s blowout earnings late in the month eased concerns that AI spending had peaked.

The S&P 500 rose 2.62%.
The NASDAQ 100 surged 4.18%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 1.34%.

READ JULY’S RECAP

THE DROVE THE NUMBERS

Labor market downshifts, but doesn’t stall. July hiring fell well short of expectations, and prior months were revised lower still, a further sign of the labor market’s weakness. Yet the unemployment rate actually ticked down to 4.1%, partly because fewer people were out looking for work, while layoffs stayed rare.

Consumers turn more selective. Retail sales data released in August showed a 0.6% dip in July, the sharpest monthly drop in over a year. Major retailers including Walmart and Home Depot described shoppers as increasingly cautious. For investors, employment trends, real wage growth, and holiday-season sales guidance are now the key gauges of consumer health to watch.

Housing stays the weak link. Elevated mortgage rates kept weighing on the housing market through August, with new construction and sales sliding to some of their softest levels in years and prices continuing to drift lower. A modest uptick in building permits offered a rare bright spot, but rates stayed high enough to restrain broader activity. Of all the major sectors, housing most clearly shows how today’s rate environment is shaping everyday financial decisions.

Inflation keeps policymakers on edge. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed little improvement, keeping a rate hike on the table even as the labor market slows and the war with Iran continues to factor heavily into the inflation conversation. Several officials already favored raising rates, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s late-month remarks made clear that inflation, not growth, remains the priority. Markets took the hint, nudging up the odds of a September move.

THE BOTTOM LINE

September’s jobs and inflation data should show how the economy has continued to develop as the third quarter starts to wrap up. The bigger risk of contraction may be borrowing costs, which could squeeze housing and pressure growth-stock valuations.

AI bellwether Nvidia confirmed that infrastructure spending remains robust, but the real test ahead is whether those earnings and cash-flow benefits broaden to software, industrials, utilities, networking, and power infrastructure, or stay concentrated in a handful of names.

As always, if any of this raises questions about your own portfolio, we are just a call or email away. Helping you make sense of it all is exactly what we here for.

STAY AHEAD.

We are here to help you navigate what’s ahead, please don’t hesitate to reach out.
And if you know someone who would benefit from this newsletter, We’d be happy to connect with them.
With their permission, We’d ensure they receive future editions.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax, financial or legal advice. Please consult your financial, legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Advisory services offered by World Investment Advisors, LLC. Securities offered by World Investments, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. World Investment Advisors, LLC is affiliated through common ownership with World Investments, LLC. PensionmarkMeridien is unaffiliated with either World Investment Advisors, LLC or World Investments, LLC

Economic Trends & Market Highlights – September 8, 2026

Written by Alexis Duffy on September 9, 2026. Posted in Newsroom.

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP: STRONG JOBS PERFORMANCE AND STICKY INFLATION

U.S. markets closed the week little changed, but the tone shifted Friday. A much stronger August jobs report pushed Treasury yields and the dollar higher, and sent stocks lower into the close. It also revived talk of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month.

The tension for investors is now clear. Hiring and economic activity look sturdier than expected, yet input costs remain persistently high.

Here’s how markets performed, and the headlines behind the numbers.

STOCK MARKET RECAP:

The S&P 500 edged up 0.09%.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.38%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.27%.

WHAT THE DATA REVEALS:
A STRONG JOBS REPORT. Employers added 162,000 jobs in August, far above expectations, while unemployment held at 4.1%. July’s job openings, released the same week, showed a labor market that’s neither expanding nor contracting, with hiring and layoffs both roughly flat. Together, the data points to stabilization after a weak summer. That eases recession worries, but it also keeps a rate increase a real possibility.

YIELDS, NOT STOCKS, DROVE THE WEEK. The major indexes finished with only modest changes, masking a volatile, rate-driven week underneath. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 4.78%, a 20-month high, while short-term yields jumped on renewed expectations of a Fed rate hike. Higher yields raise borrowing costs across the economy and weigh hardest on companies whose profits are expected further in the future.

INFLATION PRESSURES STILL PRESENT A CHALLENGE. Brent crude oil neared $96 a barrel amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, adding to inflation risk. Additionally, services businesses reported prices paid at a four-year high. The longer inflation remains problematic, the more pressure it puts on the Fed to act, and now, markets are increasingly leaning toward a hike in September.

THE WEEK AHEAD:
The biggest thing to watch is inflation itself. On Thursday, Sept. 10th, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and producer-price data will show whether the high prices businesses have been reporting are reaching consumers, impacting the Fed’s options and bond yields. Additionally, Treasury yields deserve attention this week, especially if the 10-year climbs further.

We’ll be watching how these developments unfold. If any of this raises questions, or you’d like to talk it through, feel free to reach out anytime.

STAY AHEAD

We are here to help you navigate what’s ahead, please don’t hesitate to reach out.
And if you know someone who would benefit from this newsletter,
We would be happy to connect with them.
With their permission, I’ll will ensure they receive future editions.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax, financial or legal advice. Please consult legal, financial or tax professionals for additional and/or specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Advisory services offered by World Investment Advisors, LLC. Securities offered by World Investments, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. World Investment Advisors, LLC is affiliated through common ownership with World Investments LLC. PensionmarkMeridien is unaffiliated with either World Investment Advisors, LLC or World.

Securities offered by World Investments, LLC (Member FINRA/SIPC)

July Market Recap 2026: Fed Caution and Shifting Markets

Written by Alexis Duffy on August 6, 2026. Posted in Monthly Newsletter, Newsroom.

Presented by The PensionmarkMeridien Team, August 2026

July brought mixed signals for investors to sort through. Inflation data pointed to cooling prices in June, and the labor market¹ held steady even though the Federal Reserve grew more cautious without a rate hike.

At the same time, the U.S.-Iran conflict rattled supply concerns and whipsawed energy prices, while high-momentum stocks ceded ground as money shifted into other sectors.

Here’s how it all shook out for the month:

MAJOR U.S. STOCK INDICES

Market leadership shifted throughout the month. Smaller companies and value plays advanced while AI and chip stocks pulled back, although strong earnings reports from Microsoft and other tech heavyweights trimmed some losses.

The S&P 500 slipped² 0.13%.
The NASDAQ 100 plunged³ 6.61%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher⁴ by 0.32%.

READ JUNES RECAP

THE MACRO OUTLOOK

Economic growth slowed, but didn’t stall. Second-quarter GDP⁵, which was released July 30, grew at a 1.5% annualized pace, as rising imports offset otherwise steady consumer spending. Retail⁶ activity held up through June even as shoppers grew more price-sensitive and confidence wavered. Consumer sentiment touched a five-month high in July, though renewed Middle East tensions and rising gasoline prices could make the improvement hard to sustain.

The labor market shows signs of a soft landing. June payroll gains, which were released July 2, came in well below expectations, and unemployment ticked up modestly, signs of a hiring slowdown rather than distress. However, jobless claims stayed low, showing no sign that layoffs are accelerating. Slower hiring and steady unemployment, alongside resilient consumer spending, paint a picture consistent with a soft landing, one where growth decelerates gradually rather than deteriorating quickly.

Inflation eased, yet Fed Chair Warsh isn’t declaring victory. June’s inflation report showed a decline broad enough to lift hopes policymakers could hold off on tightening, and traders quickly pared back bets on near-term hikes. Warsh offered little forward-looking guidance at the press conference after the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting, having moved away from the communication strategy of his predecessor. Underlying price pressure remains well above target, and that gap with market optimism is likely to keep driving the debate until officials say more.

Energy remains the wild card that could upend the inflation story. A rebound in oil prices⁷ tied to renewed fighting between the United States and Iran has reignited concerns that supply shocks could reverse recent progress. That has shifted the market conversation. Instead of debating whether the dovish Fed might start cutting rates, investors are now weighing whether it will be forced into a rate hike, a shift that shows how quickly sentiment turns when energy price volatility returns.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The economy is still expanding, and inflation has eased on some measures, but neither trend is decisive enough for the Fed to call the fight won. Moderating growth alongside price pressure that hasn’t fully retreated means policy uncertainty will likely persist into the fall.

The market looks healthier than it did earlier this year, with leadership broadening beyond a handful of tech heavyweights. But those stocks still carry outsized weight in driving index performance, and that concentration means sentiment can reverse quickly if they stumble.

For portfolios, the approach hasn’t changed. Staying diversified and favoring a long-term outlook can help navigate a market still leaning on a single growth theme, especially with inflation and the Fed’s next move still uncertain.

As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us. We are here to be a resource for you.

STAY AHEAD.

Citations:

June Market Recap 2026: Stocks Inflation and Fed Shift

Written by Alexis Duffy on July 15, 2026. Posted in Monthly Newsletter, Newsroom.

Last Month’s Recap: Resilient economy and nervous markets

Presented by The PensionmarkMeridien Team, July 2026

Last month, growth held firm, and the labor market held stable even as financial conditions quietly tightened beneath the surface. Equity indices were mixed, and inflation stayed unrelenting. The Federal Reserve became more hawkish under new Chair Kevin Warsh, shifting from its earlier tone.

Here’s how it played out across the major indexes and what drove the numbers.

MAJOR U.S. STOCK INDICES

U.S. stocks diverged in June after an upbeat quarter. Inside technology, the split was stark. AI-driven semiconductors kept surging, while several Magnificent 7 stocks lost steam after last year’s outsized gains.

The S&P 500 fell¹ 1.06%.
The NASDAQ 100 slipped² 0.19%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose³ 2.52%.

THE BIG PICTURE

Stronger Than It Looks. U.S. growth proved better than first reported. First-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised upward to 2.1%⁴ annualized, well above the initial estimate of 1.6%, pointing to stronger momentum heading into mid-year. Manufacturing activity expanded for a sixth straight month despite tariffs and war-driven costs, and consumers kept spending on non-energy goods even as fuel prices rose. This economy has more resilience than markets have been pricing in.

Cooling, Not Cracking. Hiring slowed sharply. Employers added just 57,000⁵ jobs in June, well below expectations. Unemployment fell to a 14-month low of 4.2%, but only because roughly 720,000 people left the labor force, a sign of fading worker confidence rather than strength. ADP’s National Employer Report showed a similar slowdown, with businesses adding 98,000⁶ private-sector jobs, though it did describe labor demand as improving. The market is mending, but not thriving.

The Energy Squeeze. May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) came out on June 10th, and showed that CPI rose to 4.2%⁷ in May, the highest since 2023, as war-driven energy costs jumped nearly 24% year over year. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy) also crept higher, to 2.8%, showing pressures extend beyond energy. Oil offered relief late in the quarter, falling from around $95 to the mid-$70s in June after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire reopened the Strait of Hormuz, though May’s CPI release predates that drop.

A New Chair, A New Tone. Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair in June set the tone for markets. The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75%, but dropped its easing bias and forward guidance, turning more hawkish. His statement ran just 130 words, a fraction of his predecessor’s. Projections showed inflation revised higher, unemployment lower, and rate forecasts for coming years shifted up, with nearly half of officials expecting another hike this year. Warsh skipped his own forecast, pushing to rely less on lagging data.

THE ROAD AHEAD

Put together, the current story is one of measured, if uneven, progress. Growth and employment are staying firm, inflation remains elevated but contained, and markets are digesting a powerful AI-driven rally.

Throughout July, eyes will turn to fresh inflation and jobs data, corporate earnings, and how the Fed moves at the July 28-29 meeting. The key questions are whether price pressures keep easing and whether profits can support current valuations. From there, it’s a matter of how shifting rate expectations feed through to stocks and bonds.

This remains a market that rewards close attention, and I’m watching it on your behalf. As always, if you have any questions about your portfolio or strategy, don’t hesitate to reach out. We are here to be a resource for you.

STAY AHEAD.

Citations:

Investing During Periods of Inflation

Written by support@seostats.com on April 2, 2021. Posted in Article, Newsroom.

What does inflation mean for your investments?

Provided by The PensionmarkMeridien Team

In August of 2020, the Fed announced that it is willing to allow inflation to run higher than normal in order to support the labor market and broader economy. This major policy shift allows inflation to run above the Fed’s 2% goal for some time before the Fed would consider increasing short-term interest rates in an attempt to combat higher prices. ¹

These robust changes to the Fed’s long-standing inflation policy further illustrates the importance of understanding how inflation is reported and how it can affect your investments.

What Is Inflation? Inflation is defined as an upward movement in the average level of prices. Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a report called the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to track these fluctuations. It was developed from detailed expenditure information provided by families and individuals on purchases made in the following categories: food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other groups and services. ²

How Applicable Is the CPI? While it’s the commonly used indicator of inflation, the CPI has come under scrutiny. For example, the CPI rose 1.4 percent for the 12-months ending in January 2021 – a relatively small increase. However, a closer look at the report shows movement in prices on a more detailed level. Used car and truck prices, for example, rose 10 percent during those 12 months. ³

As inflation rises and falls, three notable effects are observed:

First, inflation reduces the real rate of return on investments . So, if an investment earned 6 percent for a 12-month period, and inflation averaged 1.5 percent over that time, the investment’s real rate of return would have been 4.5 percent. If taxes are considered, the real rate of return may be reduced even further. ⁴

Second, inflation puts purchasing power at risk. When prices rise, a fixed amount of money has the power to purchase fewer and fewer goods.

Third, inflation can influence the actions of the Federal Reserve. If the Fed wants to control inflation, it has various methods for reducing the amount of money in circulation. Hypothetically, a smaller supply of money would lead to less spending, which may lead to lower prices and lower inflation. Empower Yourself with a Trusted Professional. When inflation is low, it’s easy to overlook how rising prices are affecting a household budget. On the other hand, when inflation trends higher, it may be tempting to make more sweeping changes in response to increasing prices. The best approach may be to reach out to your financial professional to help you develop an investment strategy that takes both possible scenarios into account

The PensionmarkMeridien Team may be reached at 866-871-9963 or meridienteam@pensionmark.com.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The market value of a bond will fluctuate with changes in interest rates. As rates rise, the value of existing bonds typically falls. If an investor sells a bond before maturity, it may be worth more or less than the initial purchase price. By holding a bond to maturity, an investor will receive the interest payments due plus your original principal, barring default by the issuer. Investments seeking to achieve higher yields also involve a higher degree of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged index that is considered representative of the overall U.S. stock market. The Nasdaq Composite Index is an unmanaged index that is considered representative of small-capitalization companies. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index.

Pensionmark^® Financial Group, LLC (“Pensionmark”) is an investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Pensionmark^® is affiliated through common ownership with Pensionmark Securities, LLC (member SIPC).

Citations

1. CNBC.com, August 27, 2020

2. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2021

3. InflationData.com, 2021

4. This is a hypothetical example used for illustrative purposes only. It is not representative of any specific investment or combination of investments. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Volatility Tests Your Mettle

Written by support@seostats.com on March 11, 2021. Posted in Article, Newsroom.

Some changes may be unsettling.

Provided by The PensionmarkMeridien Team

Most people understand that stock prices don’t go straight up. But when market volatility increases, the price action can test the mettle of even the most seasoned investor.

In recent weeks, stock prices have trended lower with a few eye-popping, one-day rallies as the financial markets appear to adjust to higher interest rates on long-term Treasuries. Since the beginning of the year, we’ve seen a jump in the yield of the 10-year treasury. ¹

While investors recognize that economic strength may lead to higher bond yields, it’s the speed at which bond yields increased that proven unsetting. Generally speaking, when yields rise, bond prices tend to fall.

It’s uncertain what’s next for stock prices, but it’s possible the current downtrend could take certain market indexes into a correction, meaning a decline of 10% or greater from a recent high. The Nasdaq market has flirted with correction territory as the rising bond yields have upended some high valuation growth stocks. ²

But by comparison, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index has seen a modest pullback from its closing high set on February 11, 2021. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set an intraday record high in recent trading. ²

What matters is what you do next. Right now, it may be best to ignore some of the short-term price swings. Remember, you craft your investment strategy to help pursue your long-term goals, regardless of what the markets do from day-to-day.

You’re always welcome to give me a call with your questions. Rest assured, we’re keeping a close eye on the financial markets, and most importantly, watching for any new long-term trends that may emerge on your behalf.

The PensionmarkMeridien Team may be reached at 866-871-9963 or meridienteam@pensionmark.com.

Citations

1. CNBC.com, March 8, 2021

2. CNBC.com, March 5, 2021