Skip to main content

Newsroom

Economic Trends and Market Highlights – October 28

IN THIS WEEK’S RECAP: SHOW RESILIENCE AMID SHUTDOWN AND FED ANTICIPATION

 

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

Presented by The PensionmarkMeridien Team, October 28, 2025

 

Markets moved through a surprisingly upbeat week with notable resilience, shrugging off concerns about Washington’s government shutdown and finding just enough encouraging economic data to keep the “soft-landing” narrative alive.

As investors look ahead to a pivotal week — with Big Tech earnings taking center stage and the Federal Reserve set to meet — a sense of cautious optimism prevails. Confidence remains, though investors are keeping a close eye on the data and policy decisions that could shape the next phase of the market cycle.

STOCK INDEX PERFORMANCE
The major U.S. equity indices posted strong gains for the week:

The Dow led the way, bolstered by cyclical strength and renewed investor confidence in industrial and value-oriented sectors.

 

KEY ECONOMIC DATA
Despite a lighter calendar due to the government shutdown, several important reports provided insight into the health of the economy:

  • Inflation: The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3%4 month-over-month, bringing the year-over-year rate to 3.0%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year — both slightly below forecasts. This softer inflation print supported the view that price pressures continue to moderate.
  • Business Activity: October’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) edged up to 52.2, while the Services PMI climbed one point to 55.2, indicating steady expansion across business sectors.
  • Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 53.6 from 55.15, suggesting some ongoing unease among consumers about job security and persistently high prices.
  • Housing Market: Existing home sales rose to an annualized rate of 4.06 million units, exceeding consensus estimates of 3.95 million. This unexpected increase underscored housing market resilience despite elevated mortgage rates.
  • Corporate Earnings: According to FactSet6, 29% of S&P 500 companies have reported third-quarter results so far, with an impressive 87% beating earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates. This marks the strongest beat rate since the second quarter of 2021 and sits well above long-term averages.

Together, these data points6 suggest an economy that continues to cool modestly while maintaining a foundation of underlying strength — strong enough to support spending and employment, yet soft enough to justify ongoing Federal Reserve easing.

Looking Ahead
Investors now turn their attention to this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Policymakers are widely expected to deliver a second consecutive quarter-point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. With inflation easing and the labor market showing signs of fatigue, markets anticipate a policy stance tilted toward support rather than restraint.

On the earnings front, attention will focus on the “Magnificent Seven” — particularly Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon. Analysts expect updates on Microsoft’s AI cloud expansion, Apple’s iPhone 17 demand, and Amazon’s logistics margins to serve as key indicators for broader market momentum.

Final Thoughts
While Washington’s gridlock and speculation around Fed policy continue to capture headlines, it’s important to remember that long-term investing is about maintaining perspective. Staying focused on the broader economic and market trends — rather than the noise of any single week — allows for more thoughtful, strategic decision-making.

If you have questions or simply want to discuss how these developments may affect your portfolio, I’m here to provide perspective, reassurance, and a steady hand as we move forward together.

 


STAY AHEAD

We are here to help you navigate what’s ahead. If you have any questions or would like to discuss
how this week’s insights might apply to your situation, please don’t hesitate to reach out.
And if you know someone who would benefit from this newsletter, we’d be happy to connect with
them. With their permission, we’ll ensure they receive future editions.

 

Advisory services offered by Pensionmark Financial Group, LLC. Securities offered by Pensionmark Securities, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. Pensionmark Financial Group, LLC is affiliated through common ownership with Pensionmark Securities, LLC.  Please consult your financial professional for additional information.This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

Citations:

  1. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rCq4p4Gb/
  2. https://www.tradingview.com/x/hDnGHDH1/
  3. https://www.tradingview.com/x/sVmoqW9O/
  4. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/24/cpi-inflation-september-2025.html
  5. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/university-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-final-october-2025/
  6. https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-24-2025