Author: Alexis Duffy

Investor reviewing July market recap with stock indices inflation data and Fed policy outlook

August Market Recap 2026: A Two-Tier Economy

Written by Alexis Duffy on September 9, 2026. Posted in Monthly Newsletter, Newsroom.

Presented by The PensionmarkMeridien Team, September 2026

August saw inflation hold above the Federal Reserve’s target, bond yields stay elevated, and oil swing sharply on geopolitical tensions. Retail and housing trends, meanwhile, pointed to a slowing economy and a wary consumer.

The economy wasn’t faltering, just running at two speeds, as demonstrated by strong performance from the services sector, which was offset by a marked pullback in the manufacturing sector. That divide, layered on top of a low-hire, low-fire labor environment and persistent inflation, complicates the outlook for both growth and Fed policy.

Against that backdrop, here’s where the benchmarks landed:

MAJOR U.S. STOCK INDICES

U.S. stocks hovered near record highs in August, led by technology and AI-related names even as underlying economic data painted a conflicting picture. Nvidia’s blowout earnings late in the month eased concerns that AI spending had peaked.

The S&P 500 rose 2.62%.
The NASDAQ 100 surged 4.18%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 1.34%.

READ JULY’S RECAP

THE DROVE THE NUMBERS

Labor market downshifts, but doesn’t stall. July hiring fell well short of expectations, and prior months were revised lower still, a further sign of the labor market’s weakness. Yet the unemployment rate actually ticked down to 4.1%, partly because fewer people were out looking for work, while layoffs stayed rare.

Consumers turn more selective. Retail sales data released in August showed a 0.6% dip in July, the sharpest monthly drop in over a year. Major retailers including Walmart and Home Depot described shoppers as increasingly cautious. For investors, employment trends, real wage growth, and holiday-season sales guidance are now the key gauges of consumer health to watch.

Housing stays the weak link. Elevated mortgage rates kept weighing on the housing market through August, with new construction and sales sliding to some of their softest levels in years and prices continuing to drift lower. A modest uptick in building permits offered a rare bright spot, but rates stayed high enough to restrain broader activity. Of all the major sectors, housing most clearly shows how today’s rate environment is shaping everyday financial decisions.

Inflation keeps policymakers on edge. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed little improvement, keeping a rate hike on the table even as the labor market slows and the war with Iran continues to factor heavily into the inflation conversation. Several officials already favored raising rates, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s late-month remarks made clear that inflation, not growth, remains the priority. Markets took the hint, nudging up the odds of a September move.

THE BOTTOM LINE

September’s jobs and inflation data should show how the economy has continued to develop as the third quarter starts to wrap up. The bigger risk of contraction may be borrowing costs, which could squeeze housing and pressure growth-stock valuations.

AI bellwether Nvidia confirmed that infrastructure spending remains robust, but the real test ahead is whether those earnings and cash-flow benefits broaden to software, industrials, utilities, networking, and power infrastructure, or stay concentrated in a handful of names.

As always, if any of this raises questions about your own portfolio, we are just a call or email away. Helping you make sense of it all is exactly what we here for.

STAY AHEAD.

We are here to help you navigate what’s ahead, please don’t hesitate to reach out.
And if you know someone who would benefit from this newsletter, We’d be happy to connect with them.
With their permission, We’d ensure they receive future editions.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax, financial or legal advice. Please consult your financial, legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Advisory services offered by World Investment Advisors, LLC. Securities offered by World Investments, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. World Investment Advisors, LLC is affiliated through common ownership with World Investments, LLC. PensionmarkMeridien is unaffiliated with either World Investment Advisors, LLC or World Investments, LLC

Economic Trends & Market Highlights – September 8, 2026

Written by Alexis Duffy on September 9, 2026. Posted in Newsroom.

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP: STRONG JOBS PERFORMANCE AND STICKY INFLATION

U.S. markets closed the week little changed, but the tone shifted Friday. A much stronger August jobs report pushed Treasury yields and the dollar higher, and sent stocks lower into the close. It also revived talk of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month.

The tension for investors is now clear. Hiring and economic activity look sturdier than expected, yet input costs remain persistently high.

Here’s how markets performed, and the headlines behind the numbers.

STOCK MARKET RECAP:

The S&P 500 edged up 0.09%.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.38%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.27%.

WHAT THE DATA REVEALS:
A STRONG JOBS REPORT. Employers added 162,000 jobs in August, far above expectations, while unemployment held at 4.1%. July’s job openings, released the same week, showed a labor market that’s neither expanding nor contracting, with hiring and layoffs both roughly flat. Together, the data points to stabilization after a weak summer. That eases recession worries, but it also keeps a rate increase a real possibility.

YIELDS, NOT STOCKS, DROVE THE WEEK. The major indexes finished with only modest changes, masking a volatile, rate-driven week underneath. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 4.78%, a 20-month high, while short-term yields jumped on renewed expectations of a Fed rate hike. Higher yields raise borrowing costs across the economy and weigh hardest on companies whose profits are expected further in the future.

INFLATION PRESSURES STILL PRESENT A CHALLENGE. Brent crude oil neared $96 a barrel amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, adding to inflation risk. Additionally, services businesses reported prices paid at a four-year high. The longer inflation remains problematic, the more pressure it puts on the Fed to act, and now, markets are increasingly leaning toward a hike in September.

THE WEEK AHEAD:
The biggest thing to watch is inflation itself. On Thursday, Sept. 10th, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and producer-price data will show whether the high prices businesses have been reporting are reaching consumers, impacting the Fed’s options and bond yields. Additionally, Treasury yields deserve attention this week, especially if the 10-year climbs further.

We’ll be watching how these developments unfold. If any of this raises questions, or you’d like to talk it through, feel free to reach out anytime.

STAY AHEAD

We are here to help you navigate what’s ahead, please don’t hesitate to reach out.
And if you know someone who would benefit from this newsletter,
We would be happy to connect with them.
With their permission, I’ll will ensure they receive future editions.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax, financial or legal advice. Please consult legal, financial or tax professionals for additional and/or specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Advisory services offered by World Investment Advisors, LLC. Securities offered by World Investments, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. World Investment Advisors, LLC is affiliated through common ownership with World Investments LLC. PensionmarkMeridien is unaffiliated with either World Investment Advisors, LLC or World.

Securities offered by World Investments, LLC (Member FINRA/SIPC)

Economic Trends & Market Highlights – August 25, 2026

Written by Alexis Duffy on August 25, 2026. Posted in Newsroom.

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP: DEBT PRESSURES, RISING YIELDS

Last week was marked by contradiction. Consumers pulled back, yet a cluster of forces kept interest rate risk dictating the pace of the economy.

Inflation remained stubborn, oil prices climbed on the U.S. threat of new economic sanctions on Iran, and federal borrowing pushed higher. Ultimately, long-term Treasury yields ended up setting the market’s mood, and stocks closed lower.

Here’s how the major indexes performed, and the headlines behind the numbers.

STOCK MARKET RECAP:

The S&P 500 fell 1.43%.
The Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.45%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged lower 0.85%.

WHAT DROVE THE NUMBERS:

YIELDS SET THE TONE. Rising long-term Treasury yields drove the week’s trading. Higher yields raise loan costs for households and businesses, and make future corporate profits worth less today. The Treasury Department tried to calm markets on August 19th by buying back more long-term debt, but investors judged the move too small to matter.

A MIXED ECONOMIC PICTURE. Throughout August, data has shown that consumers have grown cautious. Walmart’s disappointing profit outlook sent its shares down roughly 9% on Thursday, a sharp reminder that shoppers may be tightening their belts. However, last week brought other signs that pointed the opposite way. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a broad measure of business activity, hit its strongest level since 2022, led by the service sector.

THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S BALANCING ACT. Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting, released on August 19th, showed policymakers more worried about inflation than markets expected, with several officials open to further rate hikes. Weaker job and inflation data earlier in the month had raised hopes for rate cuts, but strong recent activity and high oil prices complicated that picture. Markets are increasingly betting on a rate hike sometime in the second half of 2026.

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Investors get July’s core inflation and the latest GDP data Tuesday (August 25th), and Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday (August 26th). The ideal outcome is cooling inflation, a resilient consumer, and continued AI spending strength. A hot inflation reading or a Nvidia miss could hit growth stocks hard, given tech’s weight in the indexes.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his Jackson Hole keynote Friday (August 28th), weeks before the Fed’s next rate decision. However, markets will still want to know whether he is considering inflation and rising yields as the greater risk, or leans toward recent consumer softness.

We are keeping a close eye on all of this. If anything here raises questions, or you’d like to check in, please reach out anytime.

STAY AHEAD

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax, financial or legal advice. Please consult legal, financial or tax professionals for additional and/or specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Advisory services offered by World Investment Advisors, LLC. Securities offered by World Investments, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. World Investment Advisors, LLC is affiliated through common ownership with World Investments LLC. PensionmarkMeridien is unaffiliated with either World Investment Advisors, LLC or World.

Sources:

Axios
Trading Economics
Trading View
Trading View
Trading View
bls.gov
CNBC

Securities offered by World Investments, LLC (Member FINRA/SIPC)

Economic Trends & Market Highlights – August 19, 2026

Written by Alexis Duffy on August 19, 2026. Posted in Newsroom.

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP: CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALTERS, OIL SPIKES

Last week, the S&P 500 briefly hit record highs, and the NASDAQ drew fresh enthusiasm for AI infrastructure spending. However, Friday reversed some of that optimism, as sluggish retail sales and rising oil prices tied to Strait of Hormuz tensions pointed to a slowing consumer colliding with a potential energy shock.

STOCK MARKET RECAP:

The S&P 500 edged up 0.36%.
The NASDAQ 100 climbed 1.09%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.56%.

WHAT’S DRIVING THE NUMBERS:
THE CONSUMER SIGNAL.
Employment cooled sharply in July, coming in well below expectations, while inflation eased to its slowest annual pace in years. At the same time, retail sales posted their sharpest drop in over a year, and consumer sentiment sank well below forecasts. What matters is not that inflation is tamed. It’s that the consumer may be faltering just as energy costs rise.

OIL AND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
Tanker traffic through the strait slowed to near a standstill after attacks on additional vessels, and U.S.-Iran talks made no progress. Oil prices climbed sharply last week as a result. Since the strait carries a significant share of global oil and gas flows, the impact goes well beyond energy markets. Higher oil prices squeeze consumer spending and complicate the Fed’s next move, all while lifting inflation expectations.

NARROW LEADERSHIP, CONCENTRATED RISK.
Earnings kept the broader market resilient, with S&P 500 revenue growth tracking near its highest pace since late 2021. But equity gains stayed concentrated in AI infrastructure names, where strong results and upbeat spending forecasts drove sharp rallies. The Dow’s decline against gains in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ underscores that narrowness, with the market still favoring AI and growth exposure over more economically sensitive corners of the market.

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Tuesday’s (August 18th) housing and industrial data, plus Friday’s (August 21st) flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report, will show if the recent weakness in jobs and retail numbers was a warning sign or a blip.

The Fed’s July meeting minutes, due Wednesday (August 19th), should shed some light on how Fed officials weighed rising oil prices tied to Strait of Hormuz tensions. A dovish tone would favor Treasuries and rate-sensitive stocks.

As always, we are keeping a close eye on things. If you have questions about your portfolio or want to check in, don’t hesitate to reach out.

STAY AHEAD

We are here to help you navigate what’s ahead. If you have any questions or would like to discuss
how this week’s insights might apply to your situation, please don’t hesitate to reach out.
And if you know someone who would benefit from this newsletter, we’d be happy to connect with
them. With their permission, we’ll ensure they receive future editions.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax, financial or legal advice. Please consult legal, financial or tax professionals for additional and/or specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Advisory services offered by World Investment Advisors, LLC. Securities offered by World Investments, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. World Investment Advisors, LLC is affiliated through common ownership with World Investments LLC. PensionmarkMeridien is unaffiliated with either World Investment Advisors, LLC or World.

Sources:

Axios
Trading Economics
Trading View
Trading View
Trading View
bls.gov
CNBC

Securities offered by World Investments, LLC (Member FINRA/SIPC)

July Market Recap 2026: Fed Caution and Shifting Markets

Written by Alexis Duffy on August 6, 2026. Posted in Monthly Newsletter, Newsroom.

Presented by The PensionmarkMeridien Team, August 2026

July brought mixed signals for investors to sort through. Inflation data pointed to cooling prices in June, and the labor market¹ held steady even though the Federal Reserve grew more cautious without a rate hike.

At the same time, the U.S.-Iran conflict rattled supply concerns and whipsawed energy prices, while high-momentum stocks ceded ground as money shifted into other sectors.

Here’s how it all shook out for the month:

MAJOR U.S. STOCK INDICES

Market leadership shifted throughout the month. Smaller companies and value plays advanced while AI and chip stocks pulled back, although strong earnings reports from Microsoft and other tech heavyweights trimmed some losses.

The S&P 500 slipped² 0.13%.
The NASDAQ 100 plunged³ 6.61%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher⁴ by 0.32%.

READ JUNES RECAP

THE MACRO OUTLOOK

Economic growth slowed, but didn’t stall. Second-quarter GDP⁵, which was released July 30, grew at a 1.5% annualized pace, as rising imports offset otherwise steady consumer spending. Retail⁶ activity held up through June even as shoppers grew more price-sensitive and confidence wavered. Consumer sentiment touched a five-month high in July, though renewed Middle East tensions and rising gasoline prices could make the improvement hard to sustain.

The labor market shows signs of a soft landing. June payroll gains, which were released July 2, came in well below expectations, and unemployment ticked up modestly, signs of a hiring slowdown rather than distress. However, jobless claims stayed low, showing no sign that layoffs are accelerating. Slower hiring and steady unemployment, alongside resilient consumer spending, paint a picture consistent with a soft landing, one where growth decelerates gradually rather than deteriorating quickly.

Inflation eased, yet Fed Chair Warsh isn’t declaring victory. June’s inflation report showed a decline broad enough to lift hopes policymakers could hold off on tightening, and traders quickly pared back bets on near-term hikes. Warsh offered little forward-looking guidance at the press conference after the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting, having moved away from the communication strategy of his predecessor. Underlying price pressure remains well above target, and that gap with market optimism is likely to keep driving the debate until officials say more.

Energy remains the wild card that could upend the inflation story. A rebound in oil prices⁷ tied to renewed fighting between the United States and Iran has reignited concerns that supply shocks could reverse recent progress. That has shifted the market conversation. Instead of debating whether the dovish Fed might start cutting rates, investors are now weighing whether it will be forced into a rate hike, a shift that shows how quickly sentiment turns when energy price volatility returns.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The economy is still expanding, and inflation has eased on some measures, but neither trend is decisive enough for the Fed to call the fight won. Moderating growth alongside price pressure that hasn’t fully retreated means policy uncertainty will likely persist into the fall.

The market looks healthier than it did earlier this year, with leadership broadening beyond a handful of tech heavyweights. But those stocks still carry outsized weight in driving index performance, and that concentration means sentiment can reverse quickly if they stumble.

For portfolios, the approach hasn’t changed. Staying diversified and favoring a long-term outlook can help navigate a market still leaning on a single growth theme, especially with inflation and the Fed’s next move still uncertain.

As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us. We are here to be a resource for you.

STAY AHEAD.

Citations:

Economic Trends and Market Highlights – July 27, 2026

Written by Alexis Duffy on July 28, 2026. Posted in Newsroom.

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP:

INFLATION FEARS RETURN AS INVESTORS WATCH THE FED

Over the last week, inflation fears were back in focus as tariff risks, the Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and doubts about the Federal Reserve’s next move dominated headlines.

Strong early earnings helped, but concerns about heavy AI infrastructure spending hit mega-cap tech stocks and outweighed the good news for the broader market.

STOCK MARKET RECAP:

The S&P 500 slipped¹ 0.61%.
The NASDAQ 100 declined² 1.62%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down³ 0.38%.

INFLATION CONCERNS RETURN TO THE FOREFRONT
Inflation cooled, but the relief didn’t last. June’s Consumer Price Index⁴ (CPI) report, released earlier in the month, had shown headline inflation easing to 3.5% and core inflation (excluding food and energy) down to 2.6%, giving the Fed some breathing room. However, that faded during the week as fresh tariffs⁵ on 60 trading partners raised new concerns about pricing pressure. Investors shifted from confidence that inflation was improving to worry that progress could stall or reverse.

EARNINGS SEASON HIGHLIGHTS AND AI SPENDING CONCERNS
Earnings kept the market split. Strong results from several major companies gave the market a lift, but heavy AI infrastructure spending⁶ weighed on hyperscaler stocks that reported earnings. Both Alphabet and Tesla reported strong revenue growth, but investors focused on their AI spending instead. Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) was the number investors zeroed in on, and it turned negative at both companies.

OIL PRICES RISE AMID MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS
Oil prices are spiking again. Middle East tensions pushed oil sharply higher during the week, with Brent crude briefly topping $100 a barrel. Rising energy prices tend to lift inflation expectations and transportation costs at the same time, complicating the Fed’s calculus ahead of its July meeting. Markets began pricing in a chance of a hike, even as most economists still expect the Fed to hold steady in July.

THE WEEK AHEAD: FED DECISION AND MEGA-CAP EARNINGS
The Fed’s rate decision⁷, which will be delivered on Wednesday (July 29), comes with limited drama since a hold is widely expected, but its tone matters more than the decision itself. Any hawkish shift, or any hint that easing remains on the table, will move bonds, the dollar, and rate-sensitive stocks. Alongside that, mega-cap tech earnings will test whether growth leadership can hold up under higher rates. Solid results paired with cautious guidance may still spook investors rather than reassure them.

Know that we are keeping a close eye on how things develop and we are here if you have questions or if you would generally like to talk through your portfolio. Don’t hesitate to reach out.

STAY AHEAD

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax, financial or legal advice. Please consult legal, financial or tax professionals for additional and/or specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Advisory services offered by World Investment Advisors, LLC. Securities offered by World Investments, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. World Investment Advisors, LLC is affiliated through common ownership with World Investments, LLC. PensionmarkMeridien is unaffiliated with either World Investment Advisors, LLC or World Investments, LLC.

Sources:

Securities offered by World Investments, LLC (Member FINRA/SIPC)

Economic Trends and Market Highlights – July 20, 2026

Written by Alexis Duffy on July 20, 2026. Posted in Newsroom.

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP:

INFLATION COOLS AS OIL PRICES AND AI STOCKS DRIVE VOLATILITY

Markets had plenty to digest last week. Headline inflation¹ cooled more than expected, with a monthly drop that was the largest since April 2020. But the calm didn’t last.

Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities sent oil prices climbing and rattled AI-linked semiconductor stocks, even as Q2 earnings season opened strong. Investors spent the week weighing solid corporate profits against fresh geopolitical risk.

STOCK MARKET RECAP: MAJOR INDEXES MOVE LOWER

The S&P 500 declined²55%.
The NASDAQ 100 slumped³13%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down⁴93%,

INFLATION UPDATE: CPI COOLS BUT FED CAUTION REMAINS
Inflation cools, but the Federal Reserve stays cautious. June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came at 3.5% year-over-year, giving markets some relief. The economy remains resilient, with growth still tracking near 2.3%⁵ for the year. However, Fed officials remain split on how quickly inflation will fall, and the current policy rate is likely to stay in place. Geopolitical shocks from the Iran conflict now complicate that outlook further.

OIL PRICES RISE AS U.S.-IRAN TENSIONS ADD RISK
Oil climbs as tensions with Iran disrupt shipping. Renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran pushed Brent crude oil toward one-month highs, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was interrupted. Domestically, gas prices rose roughly 10 cents a gallon⁶ over the week. Some policymakers worry higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated longer than expected, even as demand forecasts hint at longer-term relief.

EARNINGS SEASON STARTS STRONG AS AI STOCKS PULL BACK
Bank earnings solid, but chip stocks stumble. Major banks posted results that pointed to a healthy credit environment and a resilient consumer. Major indexes edged higher Wednesday as earnings and softer inflation data lifted sentiment. Retail and travel stocks led the gains. Semiconductor and AI-linked names moved in the opposite direction, selling off sharply later in the week on profit-taking and valuation concerns.

ECONOMIC DATA TO WATCH IN THE WEEK AHEAD
Looking ahead, investors will get a fresh round of U.S. data. Weekly jobless claims arrive Thursday⁷, July 23. Flash readings on business activity and new home sales for June follow Friday⁷. Together, these reports will shape expectations about how long interest rates will remain elevated. At the same time, Q2 earnings season continues, offering a read on whether profits and market leadership are broadening beyond a handful of AI-driven mega-cap tech stocks.

PERSPECTIVE
If you have questions about how recent market developments may relate to your broader financial plan, or portfolio please reach out. We are here to help you think through the data, risks, and next steps in the context of your long-term goals.

STAY AHEAD

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax, financial or legal advice. Please consult legal, financial or tax professionals for additional and/or specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Advisory services offered by World Investment Advisors, LLC. Securities offered by World Investments, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. World Investment Advisors, LLC is affiliated through common ownership with World Investments, LLC. PensionmarkMeridien is unaffiliated with either World Investment Advisors, LLC or World Investments, LLC.

Sources:

Securities offered by World Investments, LLC (Member FINRA/SIPC)

Q2 Market Recap 2026: Stocks Surge Amid Economic Slowdown

Written by Alexis Duffy on July 17, 2026. Posted in Quarterly Newsletter.

Q2 Recap: Cool Economy and Hot Stocks

Second Quarter 2026: Economic Review

Presented by The PensionmarkMeridien Team
July 2026

Last quarter told two stories that didn’t quite match. The economy slowed, and the war between the U.S. and Iran rattled energy markets, yet the stock market thrived. That gap shaped nearly everything that followed.

After a stronger-than-expected rebound¹ in the first quarter of 2026, most forecasters now expect growth to ease rather than accelerate, and inflation progress has stalled. Even so, the Federal Reserve² held rates firmly in restrictive territory and signaled that cuts aren’t coming soon.

None of that held stocks back. Corporate earnings have been impressive³, and investors continue to pay premium valuations for companies viewed as structural winners, especially in technology and AI.

The overview below shows how each index performed and what fueled the divergence.

MAJOR U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The S&P 500 climbed⁴ 14.87%.
The NASDAQ 100 surged⁵ 27.53%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose⁶ 12.90%.

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted their strongest quarterly gains in years, and the explanation is straightforward. Corporate profits have topped expectations for several quarters running, and as companies kept beating those numbers, analysts kept raising their Q2 and full-year estimates.

GROWTH: COOLING FROM A HOT START

Coming into Q2, surprisingly strong early-year data had set an upbeat tone. That tone faded a notch as the quarter unfolded. Household income and spending kept inching higher, but savings remained thin, suggesting resilience built on a fragile buffer.

Q2 has shown that this is an economy that continues to move forward, but without the momentum that would make higher rates painless. There’s enough growth to support corporate profits, but not enough progress on inflation to justify lower rates, and the fallout from the U.S.-Iran conflict is still working through oil and shipping markets, keeping investors cautious.

INFLATION: THE LAST MILE GETS HARDER

After notable disinflation through 2024 and into early 2025, investors entered 2026 expecting inflation to glide gently back toward the Fed’s 2% objective. Q2 disrupted that narrative. Headline inflation re-accelerated, driven partly by energy and other volatile categories, while core inflation (which excludes food and energy) stopped falling and hovered above target.

Prices are not spiraling, but moving from 3-4% back to the ideal 2% is proving much harder than the first. Wage and cost data underline the point. Firms are still facing meaningful labor and input cost pressure, and they’re passing it through where they can. That matters because it limits the Fed’s room to ease.

THE FED: HAWKISH PATIENCE, NOT A PIVOT

The Fed’s June meeting set the tone for the quarter. Under new chair Kevin Warsh, the committee left rates unchanged again, holding policy at what it openly calls a restrictive plateau. On paper that looks benign, no hikes and no cuts, but the tone was anything but dovish.

Officials were explicit that inflation remains too high and that further hikes are still on the table if the data don’t improve. They were equally clear that cuts are not being discussed, signaling more tolerance for higher rates and slower growth.

KEY MOMENTS IN Q3 WORTH WATCHING

Q3 will see Q2’s GDP advance estimates and revisions, which will continue to shine a light on how the U.S. economy is moving. Beyond that, monthly releases of key inflation indicators (like CPI and PCE) and labor market updates will be worth watching.

Additionally, the Fed will meet several times throughout the quarter, which will continue to provide insight into the Fed’s policy direction under Warsh’s leadership.

WE ARE HERE FOR YOU

Last quarter showed how far markets can run even when the underlying picture is mixed. Know that we are watching how things develop and we are always here if you’d like to talk through what it means for you.

And as always, if you’d like a portfolio review or would like to talk through any questions you have, just let us know. We are here to be a resource for you.

STAY INFORMED

We are here to help you navigate what’s ahead, please don’t hesitate to reach out.
And if you know someone who would benefit from this newsletter, we would be happy to connect with them.
With their permission, we will ensure they receive future editions.

Citations:

Advisory services offered by World Investment Advisors, LLC. Securities offered by World Investments, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. World Investment Advisors, LLC is affiliated through common ownership with World Investments, LLC. PensionmarkMeridien is unaffiliated with either World Investment Advisors, LLC or World Investments, LLC